Visa Earnings Meet the Swipe-Fee Bill: What Merchants Should Watch

Visa earnings and the swipe-fee bill collide this week. Learn what the Oct. 27 call and Nov. 3 midterms could mean for your card processing costs.

Adrian ReyesSenior Payments & Fintech Editor

October 27, 2026 · 8 min read

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On this page 6 sections

What Happened: Visa Reports With Its Stock at a Record High and a Fee Bill Pending
The Swipe-Fee Bill in Brief: Sending Credit Card Sales Over Rival Networks
Why the Nov. 3 Midterms Decide Whether the Credit Card Routing Bill Moves
Visa Earnings Signals to Watch While the Swipe-Fee Bill Waits
What Amex's Quarter and the Market Reaction Tell Merchants
What to Do Now: Review Your Pricing Model and Ask Your Processor About Routing

Key takeaways

Visa's revenue is the network's share of a card sale. Interchange goes to the card-issuing banks, so on tonight's call pay more attention to client incentives and the fiscal 2027 outlook than to EPS.
The credit card routing bill is still in the Senate Banking Committee. If it moves, the realistic paths are the lame-duck session after Nov. 3 or reintroduction in 2027.
Even if the bill is signed, the Federal Reserve has to write rules before anything changes on your statement.
Interchange-plus and other pricing that passes interchange through at cost is most likely to pass a cut on to you. Flat-rate and tiered pricing may not, so check your model and ask about debit routing now.

Visa reports fiscal fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results after the market closes today, Oct. 27, and merchants have a reason to listen that has nothing to do with the stock. Visa's earnings land while a swipe-fee bill that President Trump has promised to sign sits in Congress, and the Nov. 3 midterms will shape whether it moves before this Congress ends. Nothing changes at your terminal this week. What you can do is read the call for signals about network pricing, then sort out your own pricing model and routing questions before any law forces the issue.

What Happened: Visa Reports With Its Stock at a Record High and a Fee Bill Pending

Visa confirmed the timing in an Oct. 8 investor relations notice: results go to the SEC and to Visa's investor relations site after the close, followed by a webcast. Visa's fiscal year ended Sept. 30, so this report covers the July-through-September quarter and the full fiscal year.

The backdrop is unusual. TIKR noted that Visa's shares hit a record high this month even though the president has promised to sign a bill letting merchants send credit card sales over rival networks. Last quarter gave the market reasons for confidence and one reason for caution.

As 24/7 Wall St. summarized the fiscal third quarter (ended June 30), Visa earned $3.32 per share on $11.63 billion in net revenue, quarterly payments volume passed $4 trillion for the first time, and value-added services revenue rose 34% in constant dollars. Costs grew faster than revenue, though. Non-GAAP operating expenses rose 17%, client incentives rose 18%, and Visa booked $563 million in severance.

For the fourth quarter, management guided to net revenue growth at the high end of low double digits.

The Swipe-Fee Bill in Brief: Sending Credit Card Sales Over Rival Networks

The bill is the Credit Card Competition Act of 2026: S. 3623 in the Senate and H.R. 7035 in the House, both introduced Jan. 13, 2026. Sens. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) and Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) lead it in the Senate. According to Durbin's office, it would require banks with more than $100 billion in assets to enable at least two unaffiliated networks on their credit cards, at least one of them outside Visa and Mastercard. The merchant, through its processor, would then choose which network carries the sale.

Three points tend to get lost in the coverage:

It's a routing rule, not a price cap. Kilpatrick Townsend's analysis describes the bill as copying the Durbin Amendment's debit routing mandate for credit cards while stopping short of the direct price cap that debit carries. Any savings would come from networks competing for your transactions. Our explainer on the Fed's debit fee cap and Regulation II covers how that debit model works today.
Federal law, carried out through Fed rules. The bill text amends the Electronic Fund Transfer Act and directs the Federal Reserve to write the regulations. A signing ceremony wouldn't change your next statement. A rulemaking and issuer rollout would come first.
Smaller issuers are left out. Cards from banks and credit unions under the $100 billion line wouldn't need a second network.

For the longer background, read where the Credit Card Competition Act stands and what it would change.

Why the Nov. 3 Midterms Decide Whether the Credit Card Routing Bill Moves

On paper, the Credit Card Competition Act's 2026 status hasn't moved since January. Congress.gov shows S. 3623 still in the Senate Banking Committee, where it was referred on introduction. Its support has widened: Sens. Bernie Moreno, Cynthia Lummis and Angus King signed on as cosponsors Aug. 7. Trump also repeated his backing in a post endorsing Marshall's bid for a second Senate term, Payments Dive reported.

A standalone floor vote isn't the likely path. PYMNTS, citing an Oct. 8 Wall Street Journal report, said merchant lobbyists have met with White House officials and are trying to attach the bill to existing legislation. Coverage of the same report said the administration wants it passed before the lame-duck session ends, while industry voices still called passage unlikely. The banks are organized too: banking and credit union trade groups have urged Congress to reject it.

That's why the election matters more to merchants than tonight's numbers. A bill that doesn't pass before a Congress ends dies, and the current 119th Congress ends in early January 2027. The Nov. 3 results shape three things:

Whether the lame-duck session, the weeks between the election and the new Congress, has the appetite to attach a contested banking provision to must-pass legislation.
Which party controls the Senate and its Banking Committee in 2027, which decides whether a reintroduced bill gets a hearing or a markup.
Whether Marshall, the Republican lead sponsor Trump endorsed, returns to the Senate. He is on the Kansas ballot.

Visa Earnings Signals to Watch While the Swipe-Fee Bill Waits

Start by clearing up a common misreading: Visa's revenue is not your swipe fee. Interchange, the largest piece of what you pay on a card sale, goes to the bank that issued the card. Durbin's office puts banks' annual swipe-fee take at $111.2 billion. Visa sets the interchange rate tables, which are network rules, but the money flows to issuers. Visa's own revenue comes from the network fees that show up on your statement as card brand assessment fees, plus processing, cross-border and service fees. So tonight's call tells you about the network's slice, and about the pressure on the issuers' slice.

Four signals deserve your attention:

Revenue growth against volume growth. Analysts expect fourth-quarter net revenue of about $12.09 billion, up roughly 12.7% from a year earlier, per the consensus 24/7 Wall St. compiled. When revenue outruns payments volume, Visa is earning more per dollar it moves. That can come from cross-border travel, value-added services or fee changes. Listen for which one management credits.

Client incentives. These are payments Visa makes to issuers and large merchants to win and keep their business. They grew 18% last quarter, so the fight for bank contracts is already expensive. The bill would force big issuers to add a competing network to every credit card, which would sharpen that fight.

Expense growth. Operating expenses growing 17% while revenue grows in the low double digits squeezes margin. Companies under margin pressure look for revenue, and network fees are one lever. Treat that as a reason to check your statement after any network fee update, not as a prediction.

The Visa fiscal 2027 outlook. Visa gave its first fiscal 2026 outlook on last October's call, so expect a fiscal 2027 range tonight. Note whether management lists the legislation as a risk, what it says about pricing, and how hard analysts press on routing.

What Amex's Quarter and the Market Reaction Tell Merchants

American Express reported Oct. 23. Its earnings release showed record third-quarter revenue of $20.1 billion, up 9%, billed business up 8% to $454.0 billion, adjusted EPS of $4.68 and higher full-year EPS guidance. The stock fell anyway, and Visa and Mastercard slipped with it, TIKR noted. TIKR's read was that the quarter mattered less to investors than the outlook.

For merchants, the expense lines are the useful part. Card member rewards rose 10% to $5.1 billion, and card member services expense rose 36% to $2.0 billion, driven mainly by new U.S. Platinum Card benefits and heavier lounge use, according to Investing.com's summary of the slides. Restaurants, Amex's largest travel-and-entertainment category, grew spending 9%.

Merchant fees help pay for those rewards. While issuers compete on perks, the cost of accepting premium cards stays high, and that pressure is behind both the bill and the banks' fight against it. For restaurants and bars, that cost arrives with every premium card handed over at the table. The Visa and Mastercard fee outlook for merchants won't improve on its own while the rewards race continues.

What to Do Now: Review Your Pricing Model and Ask Your Processor About Routing

You can't vote on the bill from the back office. You can make sure you would benefit if it passes, and that you aren't overpaying if it doesn't.

Find out how you're priced. On interchange-plus pricing, the processor passes interchange through at cost and adds a set markup, so a drop in interchange should reach you. Subscription or membership pricing that passes interchange through at cost works the same way. Flat-rate and tiered pricing may not pass it along. Pull a recent statement, read your processing statement line by line, and calculate your effective rate.
Ask about debit routing today. Debit cards already carry a second network under the Durbin Amendment and the Fed's Regulation II. Ask your processor whether it routes your debit sales to the lowest-cost network, both in store and online. The answer is a good preview of how it would handle credit routing. Grocery markets and other retailers that see a lot of debit should ask first.
Check your contract for pass-through terms. Look at term length, early termination fees and whether the agreement passes network cost changes through in both directions. Even on a pass-through model, the contract decides whether a cut actually reaches you.
For online and recurring billing, ask your gateway. Network choice on card-not-present sales depends on the gateway and processor supporting more than one network. E-commerce stores and subscription businesses should ask whether their gateway already supports multiple debit networks online and what adding credit networks would take.
Judge cost programs on their own merits. If waiting on Congress isn't a plan, dual pricing, a cash discount program or surcharging where permitted can shift card costs now. Each comes with card network rules, and surcharging also faces state restrictions, so confirm current requirements with your processor and a qualified advisor.

Illustrative example (hypothetical numbers, not a forecast). A grocery market runs $120,000 a month in credit card sales. Assume its credit interchange averages 2.00%, and that routing competition someday cut that average by 0.20 percentage points. On interchange-plus pricing with full pass-through, interchange falls from $2,400 to $2,160 a month. That's $240 a month, or $2,880 a year, with no renegotiation. On a flat 2.9% rate, the market still pays $3,480 a month. The $240 drop in its processor's cost stays with the processor unless the market reprices.

The example's lesson holds whether or not the bill passes. Your pricing model and contract terms decide who keeps any savings that routing competition produces.

Listen for the fiscal 2027 outlook tonight, then watch what the lame-duck Congress does after Nov. 3. If you aren't sure whether your current pricing would pass a fee cut through to you, request a free quote and a MannyPay specialist will review your setup and respond within one business day.

This article is general information, not legal or tax advice. Confirm how any law or rule applies to your business with a qualified professional.

Sources

About the author

Adrian Reyes

Adrian Reyes is Senior Payments & Fintech Editor for Beyond the Swipe, covering credit card processing, merchant accounts, payment technology and processing fees.

This article is for general educational purposes and is not legal, tax or financial advice. Card network rules and state laws change; confirm current requirements for your business.